Taxonomy & Definitions

The map view of Shield & Alert displays three distinct pins. They are distinct by their respective colors and shapes.



1- The red pin with the gun in the center represents events characterized by HARD violence.  In the database, all categories of hard violence are grouped under this pin. They are:  terrorism, security/defense and criminality. Even if criminal acts are often white color crimes and do not involve violence, they are included in the red pin group.

2- The green pin with running person and pie chart in the center represents incidents with soft violence. We include all social and human crises, but also economic incidents are incorporated in this category.

3- The blue pin with man and globe in the center represents all events that deal with domestic and regional politics as well as international geopolitics.

See detailed categories below.

Ratings:  Each incident is rated along by the trackers in based on its severity. The rating of incidents follows a 5 point scale, thus rating each even up to five points, using a half point increment. The higher the risk to the stability of a country, the highest the rating. Adversely, the lowest the risk, the lowest the rate.


Specifically and for example, an event such as the interception of illegal migrants crossing the desert or the Mediterranean will have limited to no impact on the stability of a nation, and therefore may warrant a rating of half a point to 1.5, or even more depending on the severity of the case. The event is recorded and becomes even more relevant  (a) if this is a recurring phenomenon, and (b) individually or collectively such events are a symptom of structural issues within that country that trigger instability.

On the opposite side of the five-point range, an example would be the killing of Muamar Gaddaffi, triggering what has now become the Libyan chaos.

Base Data and Categories:

The data displayed on map and on listing originates from Critical Incidents Tracker or CIncidents. CIncidents is a repository of events that generally negatively affect a nation’s stability. CIncidents is a tool that combines a cloud-based database, a live feed into a geo-mapping user interface, a set of analytics, a series of alerts and a set of analyst reports. The whole package forms a brand new way of looking at geopolitical crises, above and beyond politics and country ratings as we have known them.

What CIncidents tracks is a set of negative influencers and obstacles to stability. CIncidents does not report positive developments, a role that MEA Risk plays in releasing its Country Ratings. CIncidents data is a component that feeds into MEA Risk Stability Ratings.

The inhibitors to stability are numerous and in the Beta version, we categorize then into seven broad categories:

1- Terrorism & Insurgencies

2- Domestic & Regional Politics

3- Human & Social Factors

4- Economic & Business Factors

5- International Geopolitics

6- Security & Defense

7- Criminality

Defining each category: Click on image to expand.




Country Stability Rating:  MEA Risk combines the ratings of all incidents into a single regional Stability Rating. The interpretation of the Stability Rating is explained through the image below.


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