ANALYSIS
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MEA Risk is an information, analysis, forecasting and alerting company that tracks security, risk and stability in many regions. We track incidents, from terrorism and counter-terror operations, to criminality, political and social unrest and all other key factors that contribute to the instability of a region. Our Analysts are on the ground working 24 hours a day so they can be your eyes and ears there. Stay safe and find out how we can help.
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Egypt: Militants challenge state of emergency, kill 23 soldiers in third attack this week
At least 40 insurgents and 23 Egyptian soldiers were killed in a suicide bomb attack and subsequent battle in North Sinai on July 7, 2017. The suicide bomb attack targeted the military, after the bomber rammed his vehicle into a checkpoint controlling the entry into a... read moreLibya: Shifting sands in the militia and insurgency movements
Tracking and understanding the various militias and insurgent groups involved in the Libya conflict is no trivial exercise. This is because the situation shifts quickly in reaction to the many events that force continuous changes on the ground. Take for example the... read moreMorocco risk outlook: difficult path to reconciliation in el-Hoceima, but it is not too late
Nasser Zefzafi, the figurehead of the Hirak protest movement that shook the northcentral Rif region of El-Hoceima in Morocco remains in police custody in Casablanca, having been arrested on 29 May. Zefzafi was initially arrested for having interrupted a religious... read moreNew French government refining Africa strategy: African troops for the Sahel and support for Libya’s Haftar
The new French President is seeking to influence French policy in Africa with his own vision. What he may offer may not be a major departure from his predecessor’s policy, but instead he is looking for a simplified version that reduces France’s liability and costs,... read moreSaudi power struggle could destabilize the entire Middle East
By Dr. Cyril Widdershoven- Political instability in Saudi Arabia is growing as King Salman bin Abdulaziz begins to overhaul the Saudi government, putting a long list of family members into positions of influence while increasing the power of his son, Deputy Crown... read moreWestern Sahara tension eases, but long-term resolution unlikely
MEA Risk Brief: Fighters of the Polisario Front, who are seeking statehood in the Western Sahara, withdrew from a contest area known as Guerguerat, following a unilateral withdrawal of the Moroccan troops a few weeks ago. The removal of armed forces from this small... read moreWhat’s ahead for Mozambique?
For the period of 16 to 31 March 2017, there were 56 critical incidents in Mozambique, resulting in 22 deaths. Truce between the Mozambican government and the RENAMO rebel movement remained intact, providing a clean path to a political resolution to the conflict... read moreAlgeria Security Week in Review: Week ending April 5, 2017
For the period between 30 March and 5 April 2017, there were 63 critical incidents in Algeria, resulting in two deaths and 326 arrests. This week, criminality incidents accounted for nearly 35% of the total incident pool, followed by human and social crisis and... read more
Morocco vs. EU: illegal migration and Western Sahara challenge agricultural agreement
Morocco and the European Union are at an impasse when it comes to their joint agricultural trade agreement. At the center of the raw is Morocco’s insistence on including fisheries and farm products from the contested Western Sahara province, which European courts...Egypt: Tension heats up in North Sinai, with threats for more to come elsewhere in Egypt
Suspected militants of the ‘Welayet Sinai’ (Province of Sinai) organization, affiliated to IS are suspected to be behind the killing of two Coptic Christians over the past few weeks. Attacks specifically targeting Christians have been on the rise recently, with the...Algeria: Police foil suicide attack in Constantine, background and takeways
A suicide attack targeting a police station in Bab el-Kantara, Constantine province, was foiled on 26 February. A suicide bomber was seeking to enter the police station, but was prevented to do so by an officer who opened fire on him. The bomber’s explosive belt...China to strengthen economic presence in Africa, seeks to widen political influence
Last month, China flexed its muscles against Nigeria when the West African country agreed to upgrade the second-tier Taiwanese diplomatic mission based in Abuja to full embassy status. Beijing did not like the move and has been threatening Nigeria to block any...French military presence in Africa unlikely to change post 2017 presidential elections
Despite a deadly year of terror in France, partly tied to the country’s involvement in major conflict zones, Paris is looking to maintain such involvement, and may even increase it. The upcoming presidential elections are not likely to witness a major policy change,...As counter-terror campaign intensifies in Algeria, Libya’s weapons making their way into the country
In the first four months of 2016, the Algerian army has killed 31 Islamist insurgents, and captured 33 others nationwide. Furthermore, an arsenal of war big enough to wreck havoc was siezed, including over 300 war weapons were retrieved, 202 hideouts were destroyed...Broadcast: Europe’s Radicalized Muslim Population
Europe’s integration policies related to its immigrants have been less than effective in stemming the rise of extremism. Decades of misconceived immigration strategies have led to the rise of radical movements, to the point now that new measures to strip the...Oil prices & the impact on Sovereign Wealth Funds Libya as a case
The drop in oil prices in the last 12 months has taken markets and investors by surprise. State institutions such as Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have been affected and state budgets have suffered. SWF will grow slowly and in many cases will see some of their assets...The Other Time Bomb: Food Dependency in Middle East/North Africa
North Africa’s stability is not only undermined by the terror risk coming from Daesh and other insurgency groups, but it is also more acutely affected by broad governance issues and its inability to deal with pressing economic, social and environmental problems. One...How Algeria’s new budget may lead drug trafficking to soar
The recently adopted budget for fiscal year 2016 has been subject to vivid opposition from several political figures and civil society associations ever since a draft version was made released in late 2015. Developed on the basis of a reference price of $37 the barrel...
