Libya: Shifting sands in the militia and insurgency movements

Tracking and understanding the various militias and insurgent groups involved in the Libya conflict is no trivial exercise. This is because the situation shifts quickly in reaction to the many events that force continuous changes on the ground.   Take for example the...
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Morocco risk outlook: difficult path to reconciliation in el-Hoceima, but it is not too late

Nasser Zefzafi, the figurehead of the Hirak protest movement that shook the northcentral Rif region of El-Hoceima in Morocco remains in police custody in Casablanca, having been arrested on 29 May.  Zefzafi was initially arrested for having interrupted a religious...
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New French government refining Africa strategy: African troops for the Sahel and support for Libya’s Haftar

The new French President is seeking to influence French policy in Africa with his own vision. What he may offer may not be a major departure from his predecessor’s policy, but instead he is looking for a simplified version that reduces France’s liability and costs,...
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Saudi power struggle could destabilize the entire Middle East

By Dr. Cyril Widdershoven-  Political instability in Saudi Arabia is growing as King Salman bin Abdulaziz begins to overhaul the Saudi government, putting a long list of family members into positions of influence while increasing the power of his son, Deputy Crown...
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Western Sahara tension eases, but long-term resolution unlikely

MEA Risk Brief: Fighters of the Polisario Front, who are seeking statehood in the Western Sahara, withdrew from a contest area known as Guerguerat, following a unilateral withdrawal of the Moroccan troops a few weeks ago. The removal of armed forces from this small...
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What’s ahead for Mozambique?

For the period of 16 to 31 March 2017, there were 56 critical incidents in Mozambique, resulting in 22 deaths. Truce between the Mozambican government and the RENAMO rebel movement remained intact, providing a clean path to a political resolution to the conflict...
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Analysis: Nigeria stability check

While Nigeria’s President has left Abuja for London to take care of his health, his Vice President has been in charge. What is happening in Nigeria these days? For the period of 20 to 26 February 2017, Nigeria witnessed 63 critical incidents, resulting in 57... read more

Mozambique: End of February 2017 stability check

For the period of 16 to 28 February 2017, there were 51 critical incidents recorded in Mozambique, resulting in 33 deaths and 56 arrests as recorded by MEA Risk’s Critical Incidents Tracker. The deaths are largely the result of Cyclone Dineo and its aftermath,... read more

Security: Russia Plays a New Card in Libya

The trip to Moscow, planned for this February by Fayez Al-Sarraj, head of the Tripoli government recognized by the UN, as well as the two trips to the Russian capital by General Khalifa Haftar in 2016, illustrate Russia’s increasing involvement in the Libyan... read more

UN, Morocco and the Polisario: Analysis

The North Africa Journal: February 27, 2017: Morocco is to withdraw some troops from Guerguerat, in the contested Western Sahara region. The move is a bid to deescalate tension after Moroccan soldiers breached into the buffer zone established by the UN to keep Morocco... read more

Metrojet crash in the Sinai likely to worsen Egyptian economy

MEA Risk Research Note: The UK government ordered a suspension of flights to the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, as a result of what it believes to be a strong likelihood of a bomb that downed the Russian airplane. Metrojet Flight 9268, a Russian plane carrying...

Should Kenya tighten its belt amid revenue uncertainty?

There is an ongoing debate over a “cash crunch” facing Kenya. But is it a real issue which could affect the Kenyan economic outlook?   This ongoing debate is in line with what we are seeing in other African countries. Currency woes are indeed affecting a...

Maghreb/Sahel: August 2015 Monthly Human Migration Brief

The Maghreb and the Sahel regions continue to struggle with illegal migration.  In most cases, migrants come from other regions such as war-torn Mid East countries and Sub-Sahara Africa, using the Maghreb as a transit platform toward Europe, taking advantage of a...

Egypt: Risk too High, Stability Outlook Remains Negative

In mid-May 2015, a major rating agency upgraded Egypt’s outlook from “stable” to “positive.” The rating agency cited the country’s perceived economic “recovery” as a reason for its decision. Another competing credit agency followed suit by upping its rating of the...

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