ANALYSIS

Algeria: Intense counter-terrorism campaign leads to surrender of wanted Malian insurgent

Wanted Malian Islamic State insurgent Aissa Abzou, also known as “Sultan Oueld Badi”, surrendered to the army in Tamanrasset on 11 August. Two machine guns and an important quantity of ammunition were seized. Sultan Oueld Badi is a member of the Islamic...
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Libya: Critical Incidents Map for July 2018. Libya risk remains highly elevated

For the period of 1 July to 7 August 2018, there were 64 critical incidents affecting Libya’s stability rating. Those incidents resulted in at least 18 deaths and 1,004 arrests. As a result, the MEA Risk Incidents Index (or Instability Index) for the period was 1.90....
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Difficult time for Nigeria’s ruling APC party and President Buhari, more violence ahead likely

Last week, Mohammed Ali Ndume, the Senator representing Borno South in the Nigerian Senate and a member of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), insisted that his party still maintained the majority position in the Senate despite the end-of-July’s defection of 15...
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Tunisia: Insurgent groups resort to bank robbery amid heavy crackdown on support networks

On 1 August, a group of armed insurgents stormed the Amen Bank agency of Cite Ennour, in Kasserine, and stole 30,000 dinars in cash. No casualties were reported. The car used by the insurgents was sold in the black market a few days before the attack, which suggests...
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Five insurgents, seven soldiers killed in Skikda clash as army disrupts meeting of AQIM leaders

Just when the Algerian authorities thought that the al-Qaeda threat was declining, the insurgency organization delivered a massive blow to the army in the northeast. On 30 July, five Islamic insurgents and seven soldiers were killed in a violent clash during a...
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Presentation: Sources of instability in the Sahel

http://www.jaydenx.com/MEARisk/Audio/Understanding-unrest-in-the-Sahel.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | DownloadSubscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSThis is a presentation made by MEA Risk’s Arezki Daoud on understanding the sources of instability in the Sahel at a...
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MEA Risk is an information, analysis, forecasting and alerting company that tracks security, risk and stability in many regions. We track incidents, from terrorism and counter-terror operations, to criminality, political and social unrest and all other key factors that contribute to the instability of a region. Our Analysts are on the ground working 24 hours a day so they can be your eyes and ears there. Stay safe and find out how we can help.

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Instability persists in Nigeria

MEA Risk – May 14, 2018; For the period of 7 to 13 May 2018, there were 53 critical incidents in Nigeria, resulting in 134 deaths and 215 arrests. Incidents related to the Human & Social category and the Criminality category accounted each for 24.53% of the... read more

MEA Risk introduces interactive security heatmaps

MEA Risk LLC is pleased to announce the release of its MEA Risk Heatmaps.  The heatmaps are chroropleth maps that leverage the data from Critical Incidents Tracker to provide a clear visual understanding of the risk in countries and regions tracked by MEA Risk... read more

Libya: No hope for stability anytime soon

No one seems to know what to do with Libya these days. French President Emmanuel Macron at least had the courage to say that the military intervention in Libya under President Nicolas Sarkozy, was a “serious mistake…It was not the suitable solution, in the sense... read more

Algeria: Security Update

There has been a set back in the Algerian counter-terror offensive, after five soldiers were killed today (14 February) in a bomb explosion in Tebessa, near the Tunisian border.  A large-scale sweeping operation was launched after the incident, in an area that appears... read more

Tunisia: Difficult Road to Stability

Tunisia continues to face several pain points that the government is struggling to contain.  On the economic front, new data points confirm the tough start of the year for the country.  Its foreign exchange reserves have dropped to 11.8 billion dinars ($4.98 billion)... read more

Nigeria’s grazing wars are now deadlier than Boko Haram

Most people think of Boko Haram when they think of the top security problem facing Nigeria. That may be true until you learn more about one of the outcomes of the Boko Haram onslaught in northern Nigeria. Boko Haram’s reign of terror affected millions of people,... read more

Metrojet crash in the Sinai likely to worsen Egyptian economy

MEA Risk Research Note: The UK government ordered a suspension of flights to the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, as a result of what it believes to be a strong likelihood of a bomb that downed the Russian airplane. Metrojet Flight 9268, a Russian plane carrying...

Should Kenya tighten its belt amid revenue uncertainty?

There is an ongoing debate over a “cash crunch” facing Kenya. But is it a real issue which could affect the Kenyan economic outlook?   This ongoing debate is in line with what we are seeing in other African countries. Currency woes are indeed affecting a...

Maghreb/Sahel: August 2015 Monthly Human Migration Brief

The Maghreb and the Sahel regions continue to struggle with illegal migration.  In most cases, migrants come from other regions such as war-torn Mid East countries and Sub-Sahara Africa, using the Maghreb as a transit platform toward Europe, taking advantage of a...

Egypt: Risk too High, Stability Outlook Remains Negative

In mid-May 2015, a major rating agency upgraded Egypt’s outlook from “stable” to “positive.” The rating agency cited the country’s perceived economic “recovery” as a reason for its decision. Another competing credit agency followed suit by upping its rating of the...

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