ANALYSIS

Algeria report: Health of president & counter-insurgency ops dominate the week

For the period of 9 to 15 March 2017, MEA Risk’s Critical Incidents Tracker recorded 74 critical incidents in Algeria, resulting in four deaths and 438 arrests. Human and social-related incidents and criminality both accounted for 29.73% of the total pool of...
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Mozambique report: Progress toward conflict resolution, but major problems remain

For the period of 1 through 15 March 2017, MEA Risk’s Critical Incidents Tracker reports that Mozambique witnessed 54 critical incidents, resulting in 19 deaths, 200 wounded, and 40 arrests. While security issues have eased, many of the deaths are attributed to...
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Nigeria Security Notification: oil companies may be required to relocate to Niger Delta: security implications

Dear colleague: Please feel free to forward this note to you colleagues who cover West Africa.  You could also install TripFence mobile alert application, and enable notification for instant alerts. You can select the region that matters to you. You could also forward...
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Analysis: Nigeria stability check

While Nigeria’s President has left Abuja for London to take care of his health, his Vice President has been in charge. What is happening in Nigeria these days? For the period of 20 to 26 February 2017, Nigeria witnessed 63 critical incidents, resulting in 57...
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Mozambique: End of February 2017 stability check

For the period of 16 to 28 February 2017, there were 51 critical incidents recorded in Mozambique, resulting in 33 deaths and 56 arrests as recorded by MEA Risk’s Critical Incidents Tracker. The deaths are largely the result of Cyclone Dineo and its aftermath,...
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Egypt: President Sisi fails to deliver two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia: Implications

Saudi Arabia continues to put enormous pressure on Egypt over the now-failed transfer of two Red Sea islands.  Unable or unwilling to deliver the islands to Riyadh, Sissi and Egypt are now feeling the punitive and vindictive stance of Saudi Arabia, which is now...
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Algeria stability update for first half of January 2017

For the period of 5 to 11 January 2017, there were 71 critical incidents, resulting in three deaths, 39 wounded, and 283 arrests. With 47.89% of the total share of incidents, human and social-related categories remain the foremost source of concern in Algeria... read more

Nigeria’s multiple flashpoints

For the period of 9 to 15 January 2017, there were 45 critical incidents in Nigeria, resulting in 272 deaths and 994 arrests. The Labor, Human & Social category absorbed 26.67% of the total incident pool of the week, followed by Criminality with 17.78%. The... read more

Mozambicans seek peace forward, as economy continues to weaken

For the period of 1 to 15 January 2017, there were 33 critical incidents in Mozambique, resulting in 15 deaths and 16 arrests. These figures represent a major drop in the general country risk, considering that a temporary ceasefire has led a de-escalation of tension... read more

Tunisia braces for return of militants from war zones

UN data suggests that some 4,000 Tunisian nationals are fighting alongside Islamic insurgency groups in war zones. They are between 1,000 and 1,500 in Libya, 200 in Iraq, 60 in Mali and 50 in Yemen. The Tunisian ministry of the interior stated that, this year, at... read more

Metrojet crash in the Sinai likely to worsen Egyptian economy

MEA Risk Research Note: The UK government ordered a suspension of flights to the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, as a result of what it believes to be a strong likelihood of a bomb that downed the Russian airplane. Metrojet Flight 9268, a Russian plane carrying...

Should Kenya tighten its belt amid revenue uncertainty?

There is an ongoing debate over a “cash crunch” facing Kenya. But is it a real issue which could affect the Kenyan economic outlook?   This ongoing debate is in line with what we are seeing in other African countries. Currency woes are indeed affecting a...

Maghreb/Sahel: August 2015 Monthly Human Migration Brief

The Maghreb and the Sahel regions continue to struggle with illegal migration.  In most cases, migrants come from other regions such as war-torn Mid East countries and Sub-Sahara Africa, using the Maghreb as a transit platform toward Europe, taking advantage of a...

Egypt: Risk too High, Stability Outlook Remains Negative

In mid-May 2015, a major rating agency upgraded Egypt’s outlook from “stable” to “positive.” The rating agency cited the country’s perceived economic “recovery” as a reason for its decision. Another competing credit agency followed suit by upping its rating of the...

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