ANALYSIS

Algerian army loses two more soldiers in new attack, puts troops on high alert along Mali border

On 19 February, two Algerian soldiers were killed, and a third one was wounded after a roadside bomb was detonated by suspected Islamic insurgents during the passage of a military convoy in El Aich, in Khenchela’s Djellal municipality. This was the second such...
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Libya: No hope for stability anytime soon

No one seems to know what to do with Libya these days. French President Emmanuel Macron at least had the courage to say that the military intervention in Libya under President Nicolas Sarkozy, was a “serious mistake…It was not the suitable solution, in the sense...
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Algeria: Security Update

There has been a set back in the Algerian counter-terror offensive, after five soldiers were killed today (14 February) in a bomb explosion in Tebessa, near the Tunisian border.  A large-scale sweeping operation was launched after the incident, in an area that appears...
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Tunisia: Difficult Road to Stability

Tunisia continues to face several pain points that the government is struggling to contain.  On the economic front, new data points confirm the tough start of the year for the country.  Its foreign exchange reserves have dropped to 11.8 billion dinars ($4.98 billion)...
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Nigeria’s grazing wars are now deadlier than Boko Haram

Most people think of Boko Haram when they think of the top security problem facing Nigeria. That may be true until you learn more about one of the outcomes of the Boko Haram onslaught in northern Nigeria. Boko Haram’s reign of terror affected millions of people,...
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Kidnappings, insurgencies, and grazing wars: Nigeria’s escalating domestic crises

Nigeria’s MEA Risk stability rating fluctuates from week to week between moderate-risk and high-risk zone, leaning more to the latter considering the plethora of domestic security issues it is facing. For the week ending 21 January 2018, there were 46 critical...
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Libya: Shifting sands in the militia and insurgency movements

Tracking and understanding the various militias and insurgent groups involved in the Libya conflict is no trivial exercise. This is because the situation shifts quickly in reaction to the many events that force continuous changes on the ground.   Take for example the... read more

Saudi power struggle could destabilize the entire Middle East

By Dr. Cyril Widdershoven-  Political instability in Saudi Arabia is growing as King Salman bin Abdulaziz begins to overhaul the Saudi government, putting a long list of family members into positions of influence while increasing the power of his son, Deputy Crown... read more

Metrojet crash in the Sinai likely to worsen Egyptian economy

MEA Risk Research Note: The UK government ordered a suspension of flights to the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, as a result of what it believes to be a strong likelihood of a bomb that downed the Russian airplane. Metrojet Flight 9268, a Russian plane carrying...

Should Kenya tighten its belt amid revenue uncertainty?

There is an ongoing debate over a “cash crunch” facing Kenya. But is it a real issue which could affect the Kenyan economic outlook?   This ongoing debate is in line with what we are seeing in other African countries. Currency woes are indeed affecting a...

Maghreb/Sahel: August 2015 Monthly Human Migration Brief

The Maghreb and the Sahel regions continue to struggle with illegal migration.  In most cases, migrants come from other regions such as war-torn Mid East countries and Sub-Sahara Africa, using the Maghreb as a transit platform toward Europe, taking advantage of a...

Egypt: Risk too High, Stability Outlook Remains Negative

In mid-May 2015, a major rating agency upgraded Egypt’s outlook from “stable” to “positive.” The rating agency cited the country’s perceived economic “recovery” as a reason for its decision. Another competing credit agency followed suit by upping its rating of the...

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