Country Stability Ratings: Methodology Statement

MEA Risk’s Country Stability Ratings (MCSRs) provide the latest measurement of a country’s ability to remain stable over the next 18 months. The ratings come as a result of the Arab revolts that have started at the end of 2010, and which were not easily predicted by the ratings community. It is also the result of customer requests.

MEA Risk methodology of rating nations’ stability is based on tracking three major groups of factors. We apply a proportional weighting system that assesses the impact of each of these mega factors relative to their importance in maintaining or destabilizing a nation, or otherwise. These mega groups are economic factors, political factors and social/human factors. Within each are a series of variables that are also analyzed, assessed and rated based on their relative importance and a weighing system.

The number of variables is determined by the sophistication and complexity of the country’s economic, political and social systems, with a minimum of 20 variables for the least sophisticated national system. Special attention and additional weight is given to factors that have not been fully vetted by the international rating community, including but not limited to civil liberties, freedom of speech, religious freedom, etc.

Based on Analyst research, the weighting system in one country may be different in another. For example, the impact of ethnical/tribal affiliation will be much higher in a country like Libya than Tunisia. In our weighting system, we consider these differences in assessing final rating outcome. Each variable is analyzed in a written document to support our rating.

In addition to our own assessment with Analysts on the ground and in our offices, we track each country’s available indicators established by other institutions. By leveraging the expertise of peers and colleagues in other sectors, we provide customers with the best assessment at any given time.

To learn more about our methodology, please contact us at 508-981-6937.

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