ANALYSIS

Algeria stability update for first half of January 2017

For the period of 5 to 11 January 2017, there were 71 critical incidents, resulting in three deaths, 39 wounded, and 283 arrests. With 47.89% of the total share of incidents, human and social-related categories remain the foremost source of concern in Algeria...
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Nigeria’s multiple flashpoints

For the period of 9 to 15 January 2017, there were 45 critical incidents in Nigeria, resulting in 272 deaths and 994 arrests. The Labor, Human & Social category absorbed 26.67% of the total incident pool of the week, followed by Criminality with 17.78%. The...
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Mozambicans seek peace forward, as economy continues to weaken

For the period of 1 to 15 January 2017, there were 33 critical incidents in Mozambique, resulting in 15 deaths and 16 arrests. These figures represent a major drop in the general country risk, considering that a temporary ceasefire has led a de-escalation of tension...
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Moscow’s possible lifting of arms embargo on Libya could trigger new violence, setback to Western interests

For the period of January 02 to 08, 2017, there were 30 critical incidents in Libya, resulting in 38 deaths. As a result, the MEA Risk Incidents Index for the period was 2.2. The index measures the extent of the instability on a scale of 0.5 to 5, where 0.5 means the...
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Tunisia braces for return of militants from war zones

UN data suggests that some 4,000 Tunisian nationals are fighting alongside Islamic insurgency groups in war zones. They are between 1,000 and 1,500 in Libya, 200 in Iraq, 60 in Mali and 50 in Yemen. The Tunisian ministry of the interior stated that, this year, at...
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Morocco maintains counter-terror campaign, as Prime Minister struggles to form new cabinet

The CIA has warned a number of countries, including Morocco, of a risk of Berlin-like attacks conducted by Islamic State militants in the next few weeks. Local media says the CIA informed the Moroccan government that IS may have ordered militants returning from war...
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Tunisia braces for return of militants from war zones

UN data suggests that some 4,000 Tunisian nationals are fighting alongside Islamic insurgency groups in war zones. They are between 1,000 and 1,500 in Libya, 200 in Iraq, 60 in Mali and 50 in Yemen. The Tunisian ministry of the interior stated that, this year, at... read more

Mozambique’s economy facing the bad and the potential good

First the bad.  The Mozambican economy is facing tremendous negative pressure originating from two major sources:  first, the country has long depended on revenues from key mining products and commodities such as coal and petroleum exports. With demand for such... read more

Broadcast: Europe’s Radicalized Muslim Population

Europe’s integration policies related to its immigrants have been less than effective in stemming the rise of extremism. Decades of misconceived immigration strategies have led to the rise of radical movements, to the point now that new measures to strip the...

Oil prices & the impact on Sovereign Wealth Funds Libya as a case

The drop in oil prices in the last 12 months has taken markets and investors by surprise. State institutions such as Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have been affected and state budgets have suffered. SWF will grow slowly and in many cases will see some of their assets...

The Other Time Bomb: Food Dependency in Middle East/North Africa

North Africa’s stability is not only undermined by the terror risk coming from Daesh and other insurgency groups, but it is also more acutely affected by broad governance issues and its inability to deal with pressing economic, social and environmental problems. One...

How Algeria’s new budget may lead drug trafficking to soar

The recently adopted budget for fiscal year 2016 has been subject to vivid opposition from several political figures and civil society associations ever since a draft version was made released in late 2015. Developed on the basis of a reference price of $37 the barrel...

Metrojet crash in the Sinai likely to worsen Egyptian economy

MEA Risk Research Note: The UK government ordered a suspension of flights to the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, as a result of what it believes to be a strong likelihood of a bomb that downed the Russian airplane. Metrojet Flight 9268, a Russian plane carrying...

Should Kenya tighten its belt amid revenue uncertainty?

There is an ongoing debate over a “cash crunch” facing Kenya. But is it a real issue which could affect the Kenyan economic outlook?   This ongoing debate is in line with what we are seeing in other African countries. Currency woes are indeed affecting a...

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